Cleveland Guardians catcher Austin Hedges (27) tags Detroit Tigers’ Wenceel Pérez out at home plate during the second inning of a baseball game Thursday, Sept. 18, 2025, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
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The American League Central wasn’t supposed to be a fight to the finish. The Cleveland Guardians were below .500 as recently as September 4 when they were 69-70, sitting 11 games behind the Detroit Tigers. A frenzied run has brought them up to 84-72, just a game out of first place with six left to play.
Part of their hot streak included a three-game sweep in Detroit from September 16-18, closing the gap significantly. Tonight kicks off a crucial three-game series between the two division rivals in Cleveland that could decide the AL Central.
None of this seemed possible at the trade deadline. Not only were Cleveland sellers instead of buyers, they actually sent a player to the Tigers. Reliever Paul Sewald went to Detroit for cash considerations, though he was injured at the time. He has made two appearances since coming off the injured list, and will probably pitch in Cleveland this week.
On paper, the Guardians aren’t in Detroit’s class. On the season, they have a -9 run differential, whereas the Tigers are +73. Their offense is nowhere near playoff caliber, as their 616 runs scored is tied for 27th out of 30 MLB teams. Their .670 OPS is the second-worst ahead of only the 43-113 Colorado Rockies, and they rank dead last in MLB with a .226 batting average.
Only a few of their players have been above average at the plate this year. José Ramírez is the best all-around third baseman in the game and a future Hall of Famer, and he’s hitting .282/.359/.504 with 30 home runs and 40 stolen bases. Young first baseman/designated hitter Kyle Manzardo is hitting .236/.317/.456 with 26 home runs in his first full season, and his 111 OPS+ indicated his offense has been 11% above the league average.
Beyond Ramírez and Manzardo, no one else on the roster with more than 50 plate appearances has an OPS+ above 99. However, rookie right fielder/designated hitter George Valera has given them a boost since his September 1 debut, batting .250/.382/.429 in 34 plate appearances.
Their bats overall have woken up a bit in September, giving the team the push they needed. They’re hitting .248/.315/.422 this month with 26 home runs. Their .737 OPS is a huge improvement over their .585 mark in August.
Their pitching staff has been solid all year, and they’re fourth in MLB with a 3.71 ERA. They’ve turned it up a notch in September, recording a 2.32 ERA since the beginning of the month.
The Guardians have won 6 of the first ten contests against the Tigers this season, and head-to-head record serves as the tiebreaker. Winning two out of three in their upcoming series would leave them tied atop the division with three games to go. If Detroit wins two out of three, Cleveland will still hold the tiebreaker, but there would be a two-game gap in the standings heading into the final weekend of the regular season.
The most pivotal game of the series—and the season—is tonight because Cleveland will face Tarik Skubal, who is likely to win his second Cy Young Award in a row. He leads the league with a 2.23 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 6.5 WAR (Baseball-Reference version). On September 18, he held the Guardians to one run over six innings, but Cleveland scored two in the seventh and won the game, 3-1.
With a win over Skubal tonight, the Cleveland Guardians will be in first place in the AL Central and the Tigers will have used up their best weapon. Defeating the league’s best pitcher is no easy task, but this game will decide which club is in the pole position with just five games to go. It’s the biggest must-watch game of the regular season.
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