The Yankees and Red Sox will play three this weekend in Boston, which could help determine the American League East and/or the American League Wild Card. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
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There are now just three weekends of regular season baseball still to be played. And whether or not you like the expanded playoffs, its existence means that there is still much to be determined, as only two divisions are essentially wrapped up.
National League East
The National League East is done after the Phillies swept the Mets this week to open up an 11-game lead. The Braves, who Fangraphs had predicted would win the division, project to win 73 or 74 games in come in either in third or fourth place. If Trea Turner can get healthy, even without Zack Wheeler, the Phils should be the favorite to win their first World Series since 2008.
American League Central
The American League Central is over, as the Tigers have an 8.5 lead over the still-playing-hard and not-yet-out-of-it Guardians, and a ten-game lead over the barely-hanging-on Royals. When the season began, Fangraphs gave the Twins a 56% chance to make the playoffs, and now they will finish the season just above 70 wins, behind the White Sox who, last year, set a record for futility with 121 losses. Will Tarik Skubal and pitching chaos carry Detroit again this year?
National League Central
One could argue that the National League Central is done, with the Brewers holding a 5.5 game lead over the Cubs. Milwaukee has an outside chance to win 100 games (currently projection: 97), and will most likely have the best record in baseball when all is said and done.
Chicago still has three games against the Pirates, Reds, and Cardinals, so they could make hay while the sun shines at Wrigley, but that may prove difficult as the Brewers’ final 15 games have them faced off against the Cardinals six times, the Angels, the Padres, and then the Reds. Five in the loss column are a lot for the Cubs to make up in 16 games, but certainly not impossible.
National League West
Despite the fact that Fangraphs gives the Dodgers a 91% chance to win the NL West, this division remains a toss-up. Going into the weekend, Los Angeles leads the Padres by 2.5 games, but they have six games to play against the Giants, who have won 13 of 17, and are now just 1.5 games out of the third Wild Card. That fun begins this weekend in San Francisco, where the Giants could try to ruin the Dodgers’ season while vaulting themselves into playoff contention.
When the Phillies come to Los Angeles next week, they may not have much to play for, but when the Giants come into town next weekend, and then the Dodgers head to Arizona and Seattle to finish the season, they will be facing opponents with hate in their hearts and the post-season on the line.
The Padres, who sit three back in the loss column, get the lowly Rockies at home this weekend, and then head to New York to play the faltering Mets before facing the considerably lowlier White Sox in Chicago next weekend. Then they come home to play a Brewers team that may just be playing out the string, before finishing the season against the Diamondbacks, who may have to decide who they hate more: the Dodgers or the Padres.
American League East
Like the NL West, the AL East is a toss-up. The Blue Jays lead the Yankees by three games and the Red Sox by 3.5. The Yankees and Red Sox begin a three-game series in Boston tonight. A sweep by either team could decide the Wild Card and/or the seedings. Two-out-of-three for either keeps everything muddled going into the final two weeks.
Coming into the season, the Blue Jays were predicted to finish in fourth place with 82 or 83 wins. They had about a 44% to make the playoffs, and a 16% to win the division – now they have a 78% chance to win the division and are certain to make the playoffs.
American League West
The AL West is still very much in play. Heading into the weekend, the Astros and the Mariners are tied with identical 79-68 records. Totally inexplicably, the Rangers find themselves just two games back in the division and the Wild Card. The Rangers have barely gotten anything from Joc Pederson (.175 batting average and 8 homers, after getting off to a historically bad start); just a little more from Marcus Semien (.230/.305/.364), who is out for the season with a broken foot; and a hit-and-miss year from Corey Seager, who is currently on the IL after undergoing an appendectomy. And yet, Bruce Bochy’s club has clawed its way back into the race.
The Astros play the Braves in Atlanta, then come home to face the Rangers and Mariners, before ending the season on the road against the Athletics and Angels. It is those six games from Monday to Sunday next week that could determine the AL West as well as the Wild Card.
And if those games don’t decide it, then the final weekend of the season, when the Dodgers come to Seattle, will settle things once and for all. Before then, the Mariners get the Angels at home, the Royals in Kansas City, the aforementioned series against Houston, and then three against the Rockies at home. Simply put, the playoffs are there for Seattle’s taking.
The Wild Cards
Still vying for relevance and a place in the playoff tournament are the Reds and Giants (both just 1.5 games out of the Wild Card) and the Guardians (3.5 games back). The Diamondbacks (three games out), Rays (four games), and Royals (five) don’t really have a shot at this point.
A lot of purists dislike the expanded playoffs. The naysayers believe it renders the regular season relatively meaningless. However, there are at least 12 teams that think otherwise, and will be playing their hearts out for the next two weeks just for the opportunity to play in October. Buckle up!
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