The head of the Nobel Committee, Jørgen Watne Frydnes, on Friday, Oct. 10, 2025. (Rodrigo Freitas/NTB Scanpix via AP)
Officials of the Nobel Peace Prize are reviewing a burst of betting activity that occurred hours before this year’s winner was revealed, amid concerns that confidential information may have leaked from inside the Nobel committee.
Data from the crypto prediction platform Polymarket showed an abrupt surge in wagers favoring María Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader who went on to win the 2025 Peace Prize. Around midnight in Norway on Thursday, her chances were estimated at just under 4 percent, but by about 2 a.m., they had jumped to nearly 73 percent. Her win was announced just hours later.
Before Thursday, Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, was the frontrunner to win the Peace Prize on Polymarket. Fellow contender, President Donald Trump’s odds were also higher than Machado’s.
Kristian Berg Harpviken, the head of the Nobel Institute, told Bloomberg that“it seems we have been prey to a criminal actor who wants to earn money on our information.” According to the Norwegian newspaper Finansavisen, one bettor won $65,000 USD after betting on Machado. Another winner created their Polymarket profile the same day they placed their bet.
Jørgen Watne Frydnes, the head of the Nobel committee, told another Norwegian paper, Aftenposten, that the organization “tends to be very good at keeping secrets,” noting its reputation for maintaining confidentiality. More details on the investigation into the apparent leak are expected soon, per Harpviken.
The post Nobel Peace Prize Officials Investigating Suspicious Activity Ahead of Announcement first appeared on Mediaite.
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