ARLINGTON, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 28: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates throwing a touchdown pass to Jake Ferguson #87 of the Dallas Cowboys against the Green Bay Packers during the third quarter in the game at AT&T Stadium on September 28, 2025 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
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Welcome to Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season. We still have the international game, so get any of the Denver Broncos and or New York Jets players you are playing in early. There are also two teams on a bye this week, the Minnesota Vikings and the Houston Texans, so get them out of the lineup before it’s too late.
This is the section where I offer my profuse apologies for the running back matchups last week. I could not have been more wrong. Nick Chubb out-carried Woody Marks 11-7. Chubb had 1 yard and averaged 5.5 yards per carry, while Marks finished with 24 yards and averaged 3.4 yards per carry. Both had one target, but Chubb sealed the deal with one touchdown. And as far as the worst matchup goes, Jacory (Bill) Croskey-Merritt did in fact distinguish himself from the pack, with 14 carries, 111 rushing yards, a 7.9 yards per carry average, and two touchdowns. (He did have a fumble, but we are concentrating on the positive.)
I promise to do better this week. We could wax philosophically on whether “Bill” is better when Jayden Daniels is in the lineup and whether the Chubb/Marks juxtaposition was a product of playing an inept Baltimore Ravens defense in a 44-10 blowout. But again, that’s old news; let’s get to Week 6 positional matchups.
NFL 2025 Week 6: Best/Worst Quarterback Matchup
Best Quarterback Matchup Week 6: Matthew Stafford @ Baltimore Ravens, Rams -7.5, 44.5 o/u
It is almost “pick on Ravens season”. The Ravens do not appear to be as depleted as they were last week, but…this is a defense that was struggling before the injury apocalypse happened.
The Ravens are 31st in passing yards, yielding 262.4 per game. They are 32nd in passing touchdowns, giving up an average of 2.6 per game, and they rank 30th in sacks with only six.
On the other side, Stafford has been balling out. In his last three games, he has:
- 389 passing yards and three touchdowns against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 5
- 375 passing yards and three touchdowns against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4
- And, 196 passing yards and two touchdowns against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3
Stafford isn’t going to give you the quarterback floor with rushing yards, but then he won’t need to if he keeps passing for 300+ yards and multiple touchdowns.
Worst Quarterback Matchup Week 6: Geno Smith v Tennessee Titans, Raiders -4.5. 41.5 o/u
There are a few bad matchups: Joe Flacco going against an angry Green Bay Packers’ defense, Cooper Rush against Jared Verse and the Los Angeles Rams front seven, and a hobbling Kyler Murray against the Indianapolis Colts at home.
But none bring to the forefront a quarterback who is struggling as mightily as Smith. In five games, he is number one in danger plays (2.0%), number one in interceptable passes (2.0%), and has thrown nine interceptions and been sacked 16 times.
The Raiders, like most teams, have been plagued by pivotal injuries. But a lot of Smith’s mishaps are of his own making, not seeing the field, panic throws, and not going through his reads. Until he gets his confidence back, consider any matchup with Smith under center not good.
NFL 2025 Week 6: Best/Worst Running Back Matchup
Best Running Back Matchup Week 6: Quinshon Judkins @ Pittsburgh Steelers, Steelers -5.5, 38.5 o/u
The Steelers have employed a bend-don’t-break defensive rushing philosophy so far in four games. Teams have the eighth most rushing attempts against them. They are ranked 19th in rushing yards allowed (122.0), and they have allowed an average of 15.0 fantasy points per game to the position.
Judkins, in four games, averages 18 carries with 2.8 targets a game. In his four games, he has 10.1, 16.5, 21.5, and 13.8 fantasy points. He has been on the field for 49.1% snap share while dominating Cleveland’s backfield.
- Week 5: Judkins 23 carries / J. Ford 5
- Week 4: Judkins 21 carries / H. Fannin 1
- Week 3: Judkins 18 carries / D. Sampson 1
- Week 2: Judkins 10 carries / J. Ford 6
Worst Running Back Matchup Week 6: Jaylen Warren v Cleveland Browns, Steelers -5.5, 38.5 o/u
In normal times, a running back at home, favored, is what we look for. This game not so much. Last time we saw Warren, he was a late scratch in Week 4. In his place, Kenneth Gainwell averaged 5.2 yards per carry, running for 99 yards against Brian Flores’ Minnesota Vikings defense.
Now it’s a divisional matchup against Myles Garrett and Pro Football Focus’s best defensive line, best pass rush unit, and best run defense unit. This unit has held Chase Brown (not saying much so far this season), Derrick Henry (in better times), and Josh Jacobs to under 45 rushing yards.
Warren will not only be in a running back by committee situation, but neither back looks to gain (pun intended) by going up against this unit.
NFL 2025 Week 6: Best/Worst Wide Receiver Matchup
Best Wide Receiver Matchup Week 6: Olamide Zaccheaus @ Washington Commanders, Commanders -4.5, 50.5 o/u
The Bears are coming off their bye week. The Commanders are coming off a 27-10 drumming of the Los Angeles Chargers. A win in which the Chargers’ slot receiver Ladd McConkey finished with five receptions on seven targets for 39 yards and a touchdown.
The Commanders are allowing an average of 35.9 points to the wide receiver position. Fifty-one percent of those points are going to the slot receivers. But to be fair, the Commanders are not just concentrating on giving to the slot. They gave up three receiving touchdowns to the Raiders’ Tre Tucker, two receiving touchdowns to the Packers’ receiving corps, and two receiving touchdowns to the Atlanta receiving corps.
In both the Falcons and Packers, one receiving touchdown went to the tight end position.
Zaccheaus plays 59.6% out of the slot. It’s a small sample size because he only has a 16.8% target share and a 52.7% snap share. If you want to play with a little more confidence, Rome Odunze is playing 90.7% of the snaps, with a 26.7% snap share and running 31.2% out of the slot.
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – DECEMBER 24: Kendall Fuller #29 of the Washington Commanders breaks up a pass for Garrett Wilson #17 of the New York Jets during the first quarter at MetLife Stadium on December 24, 2023 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
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Worst Wide Receiver Matchup Week 6: Garrett Wilson v Denver Broncos, Broncos -7.5, 43.5 o/u
Wilson has a 30.1% target share and a 44.7% first read share. This will get him a shadow appointment with the Denver Broncos’ Defensive Player of the Year 2024, Patrick Surtain. Surtain has shadowed and held Ja’Marr Chase to 7.3 fantasy points, A.J.Brown held to 9.3 fantasy points, and Michael Pittman held to 8.0 fantasy points.
The Broncos’ pass defense has allowed only 6.6 yards per target (second lowest in the league) and is the fourth-best EPA against the pass. Even if Surtain doesn’t shadow Wilson (and he will), the pass defense is good enough to limit Wilson to only garbage time points.
NFL 2025 Week 6: Best/Worst Tight End Matchup
Best Tight End Matchup Week 6: Jake Ferguson v Carolina Panthers, Cowboys -3.5, 49.5 o/u
This game has the second-highest total overall. Ferguson has a 24.6% target share and a 72.5% route participation. He currently sits sixth among all tight ends in air yards (38.2 p/g), deep targets (2), and first read targets (5.8p/g).
His opponent, the Panthers’ defense, has allowed the second-most yards (80.2) and the most fantasy points per game (10.4) to the tight end position.
Worst Tight End Matchup Week 6: Kyle Pitts v Buffalo Bills, Bills -3.5, 48.5 o/u
The Bills’ defense has its issues, but holding tight ends down is not one of them. The Bills have allowed the third fewest yards per game (22.6) and the third fewest fantasy points per game (2.6) to the tight end position.
There is also a chance that Darnell Mooney returns and eats into Pitts’ target share.
NFL 2025 Week 6: Best/Worst Matchups By Position
If the beginning of Week 6 in the NFL has taught us anything, it is that matchups are not myopic. Matchups matter, but so do trends. Case in point, the Philadelphia Eagles were trending down, despite all the talent they put on the field. Cam Skattebo and the New York Giants were trending up despite their loss in New Orleans.
Be aware of your matchups, but also be aware of the trends. And as always, Good Luck and play nice.
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