HONOLULU (KHON2) – Except for a few lingering showers near Kauai and Oahu in the morning, a slot of rather dry conditions will spread from east to west on Monday as Hurricane Kiko approaches the region.
Towards sunset, moisture along the western flank of weakening Kiko will near the windward coasts of the Big Island and Maui.
The latest National Hurricane Center forecasts continue to show Kiko weakening to a tropical storm as it passes north of the islands Tuesday and Wednesday.
Confidence in this scenario is increasing, though interests in Hawaii should continue to monitor official forecasts for Kiko.
Moisture along the periphery of the system will spread over the state Monday night and Tuesday.
Initially, this will provide an increase in clouds and mainly windward showers, but as trade winds become disrupted, afternoon sea breezes will likely trigger spotty interior rainfall.
These showers could be locally heavy in places, and we cannot rule out a brief thunderstorm as the atmosphere destabilizes on Tuesday.
As dew points creep into the low to mid 70s, rather humid conditions will prevail.
In addition, large surf will affect east facing shores, and see the marine section of this discussion for more details.
As Kiko moves off to the northwest of the state on Wednesday night and Thursday, moderate trade winds and a ridge aloft are expected to build in from the east.
The resulting stable conditions will bring a drier air mass with a typical pattern of windward rainfall and dew points dropping back into the mid 60s.
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