“Once more than half a million Palestinians [have evacuated], criticism of the Hamas leadership will intensify to the point where signs of its collapse may begin to appear.”
Civilians evacuating from their homes, rather than being killed in war, is what actually puts pressure on Hamas, an Israeli security source told Walla, adding that once more than half a million northern Gaza and Gaza City residents move to the south, the pressure put on Hamas will have created a “breaking point.”
During situational assessments held Thursday morning at the IDF Southern Command, it was noted that the extensive overnight strikes and the sound of explosions in northern Gaza and Gaza City accelerated another stage in the movement of the Palestinian population southward to the designated humanitarian zone.
According to IDF data, about 400,000 Palestinians have moved south so far.
“The movement of the population in general, and from Gaza City in particular, is what most frightens the Hamas leadership. Why? Because in their minds the word ‘Nakba’, the disaster, the catastrophe describing the 1948 War of Independence and the refugee phenomenon, is burned in,” a security source said.
Hamas coming under increasing pressure
“Every time the Palestinian public comes down from buildings, leaves their homes, and moves south, Hamas comes under pressure. Why? Because they need money to move south, they need vehicles, and even when they have them, the roads are sometimes gone because they’ve been destroyed. There is no money for tents, and then there is resentment and anger that is directed toward Hamas.”
Displaced Palestinians, fleeing northern Gaza due to an Israeli military operation, move southward after Israeli forces ordered residents of Gaza City to evacuate to the south, in the central Gaza Strip, September 17, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/Mahmoud Issa)
According to the security source, Hamas constantly examines not only its military strength but also the extent of its governance throughout the Gaza Strip.
“The more people move south, the more power Hamas loses. As the IDF’s military pressure in Gaza City increases, the pressure on the population will make them move, and Hamas will be backed into a corner. Then the chances of a deal grow.”
Hamas more concerned by evacuations than killed terrorists
The source added that Hamas is not alarmed by the number of its operatives killed by IDF fire, even if thousands are killed.
“But they are very worried about the population moving south. The assessment is that once more than half a million Palestinians have moved to al-Mawasi and the coastal area in the south, criticism of the Hamas leadership will intensify to the point where signs of its collapse may begin to appear. Therefore, if more than half a million Palestinians move to the south, this will be a breaking point.”
The security source said Hamas is therefore working around the clock, both through media messaging and physical force on the ground, to prevent the public from moving south.
It was noted that the fire directed at Gaza City is being carried out according to a structured plan approved by Southern Command head Maj.-Gen. Yaniv Asor designed to move the population south in stages rather than all at once, to avoid chaos on the ground.
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