BALTIMORE, MD—The national average price for a gallon of gasoline saw a minimal dip over the past week, falling 0.3 cents to $3.08 per gallon. However, this slight national decline masks significant regional volatility, with experts warning that a refinery outage near Los Angeles is poised to drive prices sharply higher across California and neighboring states.
According to data compiled by GasBuddy, the current national average is down nearly 11 cents from a month ago and remains slightly lower than figures from one year ago.
Regional Swings and West Coast Concerns
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, noted the uneven nature of the price changes. “It’s once again been a mixed bag depending on where you fill up,” De Haan said. While prices rose in states like Ohio and Michigan, they declined in Indiana and Delaware.
The most pressing concern is focused on the West Coast, where a recent refinery fire outside Los Angeles is expected to disrupt supply chains. “Pain is about to return to California and neighboring states,” De Haan warned. Despite the fire damage appearing limited, the impact on the region’s unique fuel supply system is likely to push local prices higher, even as other areas of the country anticipate stability or small declines.
California already leads the nation with the highest average gas price at $4.64 per gallon, followed by Hawaii and Washington, both averaging $4.48. Conversely, drivers in Oklahoma ($2.55), Mississippi ($2.67), and Louisiana ($2.70) are enjoying the lowest prices.
Diesel Prices Edge Up
Unlike gasoline, the national average price of diesel increased by 1.1 cents over the last week, settling at $3.663 per gallon. The states with the highest diesel costs—Hawaii ($5.20), California ($5.11), and Washington ($5.03)—mirror the high gasoline price geography.
Oil Market Instability
Volatility in crude oil trading contributed to the regional price confusion. Last week, oil prices initially faced downward pressure, with WTI crude closing the week down over $4 per barrel, fueled by the restart of a key Northern Iraq-Turkey pipeline and reports of faster production cuts being unwound by OPEC+.
However, OPEC+ members met again and announced a smaller-than-expected production increase for November, which led to a recovery in early Monday trading. WTI crude oil was up 97 cents per barrel to $61.85, while Brent crude oil gained $1.03 to $65.56, attempting to claw back losses from the prior week.
“Oil prices are recovering so far this week following a more modest production quota increase by OPEC members,” noted UBS commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
U.S. Inventories and Demand
The latest EIA report for the week ending September 26, 2025, showed mixed inventory figures:
- Oil inventories rose by 1.8 million barrels but remain about 4% below the seasonal average.
- Gasoline inventories saw a rise of 4.1 million barrels, bringing them to the five-year seasonal average.
- Distillate inventories (which include diesel and heating oil) rose slightly but are about 6% below the five-year average.
Refinery utilization fell by 1.6 percentage points to 91.4%. Meanwhile, implied gasoline demand, used as a proxy for retail demand, saw a decrease of 440,000 barrels per day.
In and around the Nottingham area, the cheapest gas this week could be found at these locations…
Photo via Pixabay
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