WEST PHILIPPINE SEA, PHILIPPINES – DECEMBER 10: Filipino volunteers looks at the horizon for sightings of Chinese vessels onboard a Filipino ship on a resupply mission to the communities and Filipino military personnel stationed in the Spratlys, on December 10, 2023, in Palawan, Philippines. Escorted by Philippine Coast Guard ships, civil society and fishing community gathered in El Nido town to embark on a civilian-led resupply and gift mission to residents and military personnel stationed in the far flung islands in the contested area of the Spratlys group of islands as Christmas nears. The mission was cut short as China navy and coast guard ships present in the area prompted the captain of the Filipino supply boat to turn back, against the assurance of the Philippine Coast Guard to push through. China cost guard ships earlier fired water cannons and rammed another civilian boat performing resupply missions to Ayungin Shoal and a government fisheries boat in Scarborough shoal. The Philippines, the only predominantly Christian nation in South East Asia, has been celebrating Christmas for more than 400 years. (Photo by Jes Aznar/Getty Images)
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China is trying to seize a shoal without firing a shot. On September 10, China announced the establishment of a “nature reserve” on Scarborough Shoal, strategically important fishing grounds in the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone. The Philippines has launched a diplomatic protest, and the U.S., Canada, Japan, and others have condemned China’s actions. In response, China is trying to flip the script. On September 25, China cast the Philippines as the aggressor in the area, warning the Philippines to “stop any provocative acts before it’s too late.” China’s words and actions seem specifically designed to test how far Manila will go to assert its rights – and the US-Philippine alliance itself.
What is China’s New Nature Reserve?
China’s proclaimed nature reserve covers approximately 8,700 acres on the northeastern side of Scarborough Shoal. The reserve includes a “core zone,” which according to Chinese law is off limits to all human presence without approval, and an “experimental zone” where scientific research, cultivation of rare species, and tourism are allowed. The area was widely damaged by Chinese giant clam harvesting in the 2010s. The reserve does not cover the entrance to the lagoon that is a traditional fishing ground for Filipino and Chinese fisherfolk alike.
It took only six days after China established the reserve before ships and narratives clashed at the shoal. According to the Philippines, on September 16, coast guard and civilian fisheries ships arrived at the shoal to provide fuel, water, ice, and other aid to more than 35 Filipino fishing boats in the area. Chinese Coast Guard ships deployed water cannons against a civilian fisheries vessel for more than 30 minutes, causing extensive damage and injuring one. According to China, it “lawfully implemented control measures” when more than 10 Philippine vessels emerged from multiple directions.
Why China’s Establishment of a New Nature Reserve at Scarborough Shoal Matters
Scarborough Shoal has long been a flashpoint between the Philippines and China. In 2012, when Chinese and Philippine military vessels came to a standoff at the Shoal, the US wavered in its willingness to support its ally. This incident is seared in Philippine memory and has caused some commentators to doubt the strength of the US-Philippine alliance ever since. Unable to counter China militarily, the incident spurred the Philippines to file an international arbitration against China over its activities at Scarborough Shoal and building of artificial islands in the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone. Scarborough Shoal has high economic significance. Scarborough Shoal sits on a key maritime corridor, along sea routes that affect US manufacturing. Increased risk on the seas translates into increased insurance rates, which eventually affects pocketbooks.
What International Law Says About Scarborough Shoal
In 2016, the tribunal ruled that China’s blocking of Scarborough Shoal, dangerous activities, and harassment of Philippine personnel at the shoal were illegal. The Tribunal also ruled that China degraded the environment through its artificial island-building, and invalidated China’s maritime claim to Scarborough Shoal and its artificial islands in the Philippines’ EEZ.
The U.S. has recognized the ruling as legally binding. Beginning in 2019, the U.S. stated that the Mutual Defense Treaty with Manila extends to attacks on Philippine personnel anywhere in the South China Sea. China has rejected the ruling as “waste paper” and repeatedly violated it, and maintained de facto control of the shoal. The Philippines has reportedly prepared another legal case against China for environmental damage and violations of the 2016 ruling.
How the New Nature Reserve Challenges the US-Philippine Alliance
China’s establishment of the nature reserve is rich with irony—and fraught with danger. China’s “Three Warfares” underpin its military and geopolitical strategy: media warfare, legal warfare, and psychological warfare. China’s nature reserve is a masterful display of all three. By establishing a nature reserve, China uses its domestic law to provide a veneer of legitimacy for its attempt to establish sovereignty. Any Filipino fisherfolk at the nature reserve are now subject to arrest by China. The recent clash has shown that when the Philippines tries to protect its people, China will cast it as an aggressor in the nature reserve. A wider conflict could ensue—with each side disputing who started it. China also presents itself as being a protector of the environment in the South China Sea, making it look like China is enforcing the spirit of the arbitration, if not its terms. China is also countering the Philippines’ narrative that China is polluting the area by casting itself publicly as an environmental protector.
The nature reserve also presents a challenge for Washington. The US does not take a position on the sovereignty of Scarborough Shoal, officially stating that countries with competing claims in the South China Sea must work those out themselves. However, the US has recognized the 2016 Arbitration as legally binding and called on China to abide by it. Under the ruling, Scarborough Shoal is a rock that generates a 12 nautical mile territorial sea around it. China has now asserted control over most of that sea, which the Philippines also claims. If the Philippines decides to assert its claim to the shoal—or its rights to the fish in its EEZ—the US will be forced to decide if and how to support its ally. Its answer will have tremendous implications for the strength of the US-Philippine alliance – and could risk broader confrontation with Beijing.
The US and the Philippines Should Not Let China Control The Narrative
It’s said that victors write the history books, but China has already started shaping the story. China is making a play for sovereignty under the veneer of law and the guise of environmental protection, and turning the narrative against Manila. China has seized a critical feature and a territorial sea in a US ally’s EEZ—and so far the world done little in response. China has created a situation where a Filipino fisherman seeking dinner could accidentally start a global war. If he does, China is poised to pin the blame on the Philippines and the US—and has twisted the facts so the world might believe it. Policymakers seeking to deescalate should consider rewriting the story. Publicizing the truth about China’s legal and political warfare will go a long way to defusing China’s lies.
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