As a long-time student of the polls, I am interested in how and when Americans change their minds about issues big and small. Polls can’t provide precise dates, of course, but they can get give us a sense of which way the winds are blowing over time. It is in this context that I have followed Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s comments on women serving in the military in combat roles. In his meeting with the generals on September 30, Hegseth said “When it comes to any job that requires physical power to perform in combat, those physical standards must be high and gender neutral,” he said. “If women can make it, excellent. If not, it is what it is. If that means no women qualify for some combat jobs, so be it. That is not the intent, but it could be the result.” The Secretary’s earlier comments suggest skepticism of women in direct combat roles.
For more than 40 years, pollsters have been asking people about allowing women in combat roles. In 1982, when NORC asked about different jobs a woman might have in the military “if she is trained to do [the job],” 97% said she could be assigned to be a typist in the Pentagon, 93% a nurse in a combat zone, 61% a fighter jet pilot, 57% commander of a large military base, and 56% a crew member on a combat ship. Only 34% said she should be assigned to be a soldier in hand-to-hand combat situations. The Presidential Commission on the Assignment of Women in the Armed Forces was established in 1992 in response to interest from Congress in clarifying women’s roles. The Roper Organization conducted two surveys for the commission on attitudes about different types of combat assignments, including different family situations, and the reasons women should or should not serve in them. The final question found that 26% thought women in direct combat positions would have a positive effect on the country’s ability to fight wars, 23% a negative effect, while 43% said neither. The Commission recommended women be excluded from direct land combat units and positions but allowed to serve on some combat vessels.
Over the next 25 years, acceptance of the idea of allowing women to serve in combat roles grew. In a Gallup/CNN/USA Today poll from 2005, 67% supported allowing women to serve in combat jobs. In a CBS/NYT poll from 2009, 83% favored women being allowed to serve in support roles in combat zones. In another question 53% supported allowing women to participate in direct combat roles. Pew asked about allowing women to participate in ground units that engage in close combat in 2013, and 66% (37% strongly, 28% somewhat) said they should be allowed to do so. Twenty-nine percent said the change would make military effectiveness better, 15% worse, and 49% said there would be no change. Republicans were less supportive than Democrats.
In 2013, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta announced the removal of the ground combat exclusion and in 2015, women were formally allowed in all combat positions. In a CNN/ORC poll from 2016, 36% said women should get be able to get combat assignments on the same terms as men, while 51% answered that they should get them only if they want them, and 12% said they should never get them. In 1991, those responses were 36%, 45%, and 16%, respectively.
The issue returned when Hegseth was nominated and grilled about his beliefs. In an early October CBS News/YouGov poll, 75% favored allowing women to participate in combat, while a quarter were opposed. Men (73%) and women (76%) were equally supportive. More than 70% of all age groups favored this. A January 2025 Gallup question produced similar results. In both polls, majorities of Republicans, Democrats, and independents agreed, although Republicans were less supportive than Democrats.
Allowing women in combat positions appears to be a settled issue in public opinion. Giving people choices they can make themselves is a powerful central property in polls. Most of the questions I reviewed asked about allowing women to take on combat roles. Interestingly, requiring women to be drafted is not settled. Americans do not favor returning to a draft. In six Gallup questions between 1980 and 2001, people were ambivalent about whether young women should be required to participate if a draft were to become necessary. A 2021 Ipsos question that did not use the word “require” found that 45% favored drafting women (down from 63% in 2016) as well as men if a draft were reinstated, while 35% were opposed.
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