Seattle, USA – Feb 10, 2020: Amazon Prime Now Delivery van and driver downtown on 4th avenue late in the day.
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Wearied by inflation and growing economic uncertainty, shoppers used Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days, running October 7 and 8, to stock up on practical everyday essentials, having waited to make purchases until they went on sale. This, according to a tracking survey among over 5,000+ Prime Big Deal Days shoppers conducted by Numerator.
“With half of consumers saying tariffs are affecting what they buy and how they shop during the event, they’re focusing their purchases on everyday essentials such as apparel, shoes, household items, and home goods,” shared Numerator analyst Shawn Paustian.
After Amazon reported its July four-day Prime Day 2025 sales event was the company’s biggest ever – aggregated online spending totaled more than two Black Fridays during those four days, Adobe Analytics reported – it’s hoping to pull out another win for the follow-up October two-day sales event. However, early indicators are that its October Prime Big Deal Days’ performance was more ho-hum than the jolly ho-ho-ho hoped for.
Comparing October And July Prime Days
The top reasons for shopping Prime Big Deal Days were to purchase something they’ve been waiting to go on sale (45%), followed by purchasing everyday essentials (28%) and stocking up on sale items (25%). This tracks closely to the reasons they shopped July Prime Day, according to Numerator, which surveyed 5,000 Prime Day shoppers during and after the event.
However, while 90% of shoppers were aware of Prime Big Deal Days ahead of time, it’s surprising that only 61% of July Prime Day shoppers returned to snag additional deals this October, though 19% said they couldn’t recall. In July, 88% of shoppers had participated in previous Prime Day events.
After a majority (55%) engaged in comparing products and prices across competing retailers, like Walmart and Target, shoppers were less enthused by Amazon this time around. Satisfaction with the sales offered slipped from 66% who were extremely or very satisfied in July to 58% in October.
The top items purchased in October included apparel & shoes (26%), household essentials (26%), home beauty & cosmetics (22%), health & wellness items (21%) and home goods (21%). This tracked fairly closely to the top items in July, though results dropped a few percentage points in these categories, perhaps owing to the reduced number of sale days, or perhaps not.
Specifically, October’s average order size dropped 15% from July, down from $53.54 to $45.42 and 44% of orders were for less than $20, compared with 37% in July.
Factoring in their decision to shop Prime Big Deal Days were tariffs (48%), presumably to get ahead of expected price increases coming down the pike. However, 29% said they were more cautious due to the current economic climate, and 28% limited their spending because of inflation or cost of living concerns.
Holiday Retail In The Crosshairs
In another sign of caution, only 23% of shoppers took advantage of Prime Big Deal Days to get a jump on holiday shopping. This compares to nearly half (45%) of holiday shoppers getting a holiday head start before November last year, according to the National Retail Federation.
The NRF will release its holiday forecast on November 6, several weeks behind its typical early to mid-October release – the last time NRF delayed its prediction was in the midst of the 2020 pandemic – likely owing to the many conflicting factors that will play into consumer sentiment this year.
The Conference Board reported a “sharp deterioration in consumers’ views of the current economic situation” in its Consumer Confidence Index release on September 30. Tariffs, inflation, jobs and employment weighed heavily on consumer sentiment, driving the Consumer Confidence Index down 3.6 points in September to 94.2, from 97.8 in August.
“Consumer confidence weakened in September, declining to the lowest level since April 2025,” The Conference Board’s senior economist Stephanie Guichard said in a statement. In April, President Trump announced his “Declaration of Economic Independence,” which instituted new tariff policies that jolted consumers and the retail ecosystem.
Too Early To Call
While consultancies and polling firms are out left, right and center with holiday spending forecasts, Circana’s chief retail advisor Marshal Cohen warns that the 2025 holiday shopping season will be less predictable and more spread out than in any other year.
“The volatility of consumers is evident in their feelings about the holiday shopping season,” he said in a statement. “While consumer spending to date has demonstrated resilience, final retail holiday results will be greatly influenced by the timing of everything from promotions to the news of the day.”
While an overwhelming 80% of holiday shoppers expect prices to be higher this year, Amazon’s lukewarm response to Prime Big Deal Days suggests that retailers may be disappointed if they rely solely on promotions to drive spending as the season unfolds.
Not that shoppers won’t appreciate discounts and sales, but it may not be enough. Circana found 31% of shoppers expect to buy fewer items this year, with nearly two-thirds saying the rising cost of grocery items could constrain purchases.
“Holiday 2025 will be full of surprises and challenges – from comparisons to the 2024 election impact and continuous economic uncertainty,” Cohen concluded. “Marketers will need to be diligent in their efforts to inspire the consumer, whether it is tapping into pent-up demand for products from key industries, like apparel, toys, and technology, or appealing to the consumer’s core value of the moment – whether price or priority.”
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