England bagged a resounding 5-0 victory over Serbia in their last international outing, in what was undoubtedly the best performance since Thomas Tuchel took charge of the side.
Naturally, talk has moved on to who might travel across the Atlantic next summer to compete in the 2026 World Cup, with a few stars staking an unexpectedly early claim for a place.
Thankfully, OLBG have crunched the numbers for us, to give us a clearer picture of the current candidates’ standing.
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Few would have been banking on Jack Grealish going to the World Cup if asked a few months ago (Image credit: Everton)
In their workings, OLBG have given all players an importance ranking based on their number of England caps, market values, days since last cap and long-term performance ratings, assuming that three goalkeepers, eight defenders, five midfielders and 10 forwards are taken.
Of those players rated, perhaps the biggest shock is Jack Grealish, given a 74.05 per cent chance of booking himself a place on the plane.
Noni Madueke ranks pretty low, despite having just bagged his first England goal (Image credit: David Balogh – The FA/The FA via Getty Images)
England are blessed with wingers and players capable of operating in central attacking areas, so coupled with the fact that the Everton loanee has only made four appearances for the Three Lions since the start of 2024, including missing last year’s Euros, he’s given a surprisingly high chance.
The opposite is true of Noni Madueke, who has been an England camp regular over the last 12 months, has grown in stature since his big-money move to Arsenal, and notched his first England goal against Serbia this week. Despite all that, he’s given just an 18.31 per cent chance of making it on the plane.
Of course, a lot can happen between now and Tuchel submitting his final list next year, not least injuries, the emergence of new stars, and form across the season.
Keep scrolling to see the full list of players rated by OLBG…
In FourFourTwo’s opinion, while some of these ratings ring true, like the 99.98 and 99.95 per cent chances given to Declan Rice and Harry Kane respectively, others we can see changing based on factors outside of the England sphere.
These workings provide Kobbie Mainoo with an 80.66 per cent chance of travelling with England to the World Cup, but last year was his first major tournament, and his position under Ruben Amorim at Manchester United is still unclear. If he spends large chunks of this season on the bench, a call-up seems unlikely.
The model is, of course, based on historical data and is not seeking to predict the course of this upcoming domestic season, but that will be a crucial factor in deciding the final 26-man squad.
Those ranking near the bottom of this list will still feel they have plenty of time to prove their worth before the start of next summer – but it’s nice to see the Three Lions in a position where the squad doesn’t pick itself!
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