LVIV, UKRAINE – OCTOBER 05: A view of the damage and destruction after Russian attack involving drones and cruise missiles in Lviv, Ukraine on October 05, 2025. The strikes caused a fire in the industrial park area. The city also experienced disruptions to public transport and power outages in several districts. (Photo by Lviv Regional Military Administration/Anadolu via Getty Images)
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Strategic drone and missile strikes are central to both the Russian and Ukrainian battle plans, though each side employs them differently. Over the past three months, Ukraine has destroyed a number of military targets and oil refineries deep inside Russia using precision drone strikes. Russia, by contrast, relies on a brute-force approach, launching large numbers of drones and missiles to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. This method has met with limited success, as Ukraine has generally been able to counter such attacks. However, a large-scale strike on October 2 indicates that Russia has refined its tactics and technology, enabling more of its drones and missiles to penetrate Ukraine’s defenses.
Russia’s New Drone and Missile Strike Strategy
During the night of October 2, Russian forces launched one of their largest coordinated attacks against Ukraine in months. They fired 7 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 21 Iskander-K cruise missiles, 7 Kh-59/69 air-launched cruise missiles, and approximately 381 drones from multiple regions, including Kursk, Bryansk, Oryol, Rostov, Smolensk, and Krasnodar. The Ukrainian Air Force reported intercepting 303 drones, 12 cruise missiles, and five guided missiles. Regardless, 78 drones and 18 missiles, including all 7 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, struck 15 targets across the country. These drones and missiles hit targets in Kharkiv and Poltava oblasts, with additional impacts in Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Kyiv. These attacks appear to be targeting critical energy infrastructure and are part of a broader plan to cripple Ukraine’s energy grid before winter.
BALAKLIIA, UKRAINE – OCTOBER 2: Wreckage of cars lie on the street after Russian missile attack on October 2, 2025 in Balakliia, Ukraine. On October 1 Russian forces struck Balakliia in Kharkiv region with an Iskander-M missile. (Photo by Mykyta Kuznetsov/Gwara Media/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
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Russia has combined missiles with drones in past barrages, but most of its recent strikes have relied almost entirely on drones, with only a few missiles included. An analysis from the Institute for the Study of War indicates that Russian forces spent September stockpiling ballistic and cruise missiles to enable a few large-scale strikes on select days. During that month, Russia launched about 6,900 drones but conducted only four overnight attacks involving more than ten missiles. Since late August, Russia has carried out one major strike with roughly forty missiles every two weeks. This pattern suggests a shift toward fewer but larger coordinated attacks that combine missiles and drones to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. These attacks accompany the smaller drone barrages that occur almost nightly. By conserving missiles for weeks and then launching them alongside hundreds of drones, Russia saturates Ukrainian defenses, increases the likelihood of successful strikes, and forces Ukraine to expend valuable interceptor missiles.
Russian Upgrades To Missile Technology
In addition to adopting new strategies, Russia has upgraded both its ballistic and cruise missile systems to make them harder to intercept. The Iskander-M ballistic missile now carries radar decoys that make it difficult for Ukrainian radar to track. These missiles can also reportedly shift trajectory in the final phase of flight, reducing the effectiveness of air defense systems. The Iskander-K cruise missile has been improved with more reliable fuzes, anti-jamming navigation systems, and upgraded warheads to ensure detonation on impact. While there have been no reports of upgrades to the Kh-59 cruise missile used in the strike, its newer variant, the Kh-69, which was also used in the recent strike, is designed for greater stealth and maneuverability.
In this photo released by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Monday, Sept. 15, 2025, Russian troops load an Iskander missile onto a mobile launcher during the joint Russian-Belarusian military drills at an undisclosed location in Kaliningrad region of Russia. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP)
Russian Defense Ministry Press Service
These improvements extend to Russia’s hypersonic arsenal, including the Kinzhal and Zircon. The Kinzhal, an air-launched missile derived from the Iskander system, has been used since the start of the war but has struggled with poor accuracy. Newer versions appear more precise and can maneuver at hypersonic speeds, making them much harder to intercept. Some of the upgraded Iskander-M and Iskander-K capabilities likely leverage these advances. The Zircon, a ship-launched missile, adds another dimension to Russia’s long-range strike capability. This hypersonic weapon was introduced in 2024, though its use has remained limited.
These upgraded systems are now challenging Ukrainian air defenses, including the Patriot system, Ukraine’s primary protection against ballistic and hypersonic missiles. Earlier in the war, a report from the Kiel Institute, a German-based research center, stated the Patriots has a 25 percent interception rate against the hypersonic Kinzhal, though doing so required firing all interceptor rounds in the battery. During the October 2 strike, the slower Iskander-M missiles, behaving similarly to the Kinzhal, were all able to hit their targets.
Russian Upgrades To Drone Technology
The missile upgrades coincide with similar advances in Russia’s Shahed drones. The newest versions of the Shahed-136, known in Russia as the Geran-2, are now used alongside decoy drones referred to as Gerberas. The Shaheds also feature improved electronics and flight-control systems that enhance navigation and make them more resistant to jamming. Ukrainian reports indicate that during recent strikes, the drones have been adjusting their flight paths as they approach their targets, possibly through limited artificial intelligence or human control. This unpredictability, combined with reinforced airframes and relocated fuel tanks, allows them to absorb more damage and stay airborne even after being hit.
KHARKIV, UKRAINE – JULY 30: Dmytro Chubenko of the Kharkiv regional prosecutor’s office examines the remains of a Russian-made, Iran-designed Shahed-136 drone (Geran-2 in Russia) on July 30, 2025 in Kharkiv, Ukraine. (Photo by Scott Peterson/Getty Images)
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These improvements have produced noticeable results. Earlier this year, Ukraine was shooting down or jamming nearly all incoming Shaheds. Ukrainian jamming often caused many of the drones to veer off course, while the remainder were shot down by air defense systems, interceptor drones, helicopters, or ground-based crews. However, during the October 2 barrage, about a quarter of the Shaheds reached their targets, a significant increase from previous months.
Ukraine’s Probable Responses To The New Russian Strategy
Ukraine’s layered air defense network remains flexible, allowing it to respond quickly to changes in Russian tactics and technology. Engineers will upgrade their existing systems to better track unpredictable flight paths, and mobile fire units are being equipped with faster targeting systems and improved radar integration. Meanwhile, Ukraine is also expanding its fleet of interceptor drones that can hunt down and destroy incoming threats before they reach their targets. These upgrades should reduce the effectiveness of Russian strikes, although some missiles and drones will likely still get through, particularly the upgraded ballistic missiles.
Russia’s main vulnerability lies in its production capacity. Its ability to manufacture advanced cruise and ballistic missiles remains limited, forcing it to stockpile weapons for large, infrequent attacks. Each major strike consumes resources that cannot be easily replaced, especially under current embargoes. Ukraine now has deep-strike capabilities that can reach the factories, airfields, and logistics centers used to produce these weapons. Targeting this infrastructure could limit Russia’s ability to sustain high-intensity attacks and eventually ease pressure on Ukraine’s air defenses.
For now, Russia holds an important advantage. Its combined missile and drone strategy appears to be working as intended, stretching Ukraine’s defenses while striking critical infrastructure. With winter approaching, these attacks threaten to weaken Ukraine’s energy grid and strain public resilience. The coming months will determine whether Ukraine’s new defenses can adapt quickly enough to blunt Russia’s renewed offensive power.
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