JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 06: Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars celebrates during the fourth quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at EverBank Stadium on October 06, 2024 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images)
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It’s week two, and you know that week one DFS was an anomaly of sorts (but good on you if you ended up in the money…keep it going). The abnormality, of course, came from the low scoring, both on the field and in the GPP and Single Entry games.
The winner of DraftKings millimaker surged into first place with a score of 193.92, which is low considering the average winning score for the millimaker in 2024 was 229.14. In the nine-man roster, only quarterback Justin Fields (29.52) and wide receiver RickyPearsall (17.80) exceeded the 4.5x salary: points threshold. In the smaller field, single-entry formats scoring from 162 upwards landed you in the top 1 percent.
So, it remains to be seen if this season will be an anomaly of scoring or if that was just a DFS week one aberration. Either way, let’s move on to week two and seven things you need to know.
What’s Your Goal…Realistically
Yes, winning a million dollars would be nice, but realistically, what is your goal in fantasy football DFS? Do you want to just come out even? Is there a specific amount of money you intend to make?
When you know your goal, it is easier to choose the DFS contest you want to play in each week. Your choices are unlimited. You can play Cash games, Tournament games, Head-to-Head, or even qualifiers.
It may seem silly, but know what you want to do have a plan.
Study Prop Bets
Per ESPN analytics, here are a few of the top prop bets for week two:
This lets you know that this game is expected to be a high-scoring affair (the line started at 45.5). Josh Allen is familiar with Aaron Glenn, having tormented his defense last year.
Last week, Glen’s Jets’ defense did what Glen’s defenses do: they played man at the third-highest rate and blitzed at the seventh-highest rate. The problem is that this plays into Allen’s strengths.
Last week, the Jets’ offense scored 32 points against the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense. They ran the ball second most (39), averaged 5.5 yards per carry, and had four explosive runs. Buffalo allowed 238 rushing yards last week, the most in the league.
- Tyrone Tracy Jr., OVER 2.5 receptions. (even)
The New York Giants travel to Dallas to play the Matt Eberflus-led Cowboys’ defense. Eberflus’s defenses are known for playing zone coverage. Running backs going against an Eberflus defense normally see more targets and receptions.
- Kayson Boutte to have 100+ receiving yards (+850)
Per ESPN, “no wide receiver in Week 1 ran a higher rate of go routes and deep fades than Boutte (40%).
Prop bets are a window into expectation. Check out multiple sites and use them with your other tools to decipher game flow and who is expected to have a high ceiling and a low floor.
What Team Is Playing Fast, And Who Is Playing Slow
The amount of plays a team gets per game is important because, of course, the more you play, the more chances to score, which equals more fantasy goodness.
Last week, the top five teams in plays per game were:
- Buffalo, 78
- San Francisco, 72
- Cleveland, 71
- Denver, 71
- Atlanta, 71
The teams with the fewest plays per game
32. Miami, 46
31. Minnesota, 49
30. Cincinnati, 49
29. Seattle, 50
28. Baltimore, 50
Tournament Plays Versus Cash Plays
In a tournament, you are seeking mostly low-owned players with high ceilings. In DFS cash games, you want the safe floor. Per FTA, here are the seven highest in DraftKings ownership projections as of Saturday morning.
- Running back Christian McCaffrey, 28.8%,
- Running back, Chase Brown, 18.6%
- Rams Defense, 17.1%
- Wide Receiver Puka Nacua, 17%
- Wide Receiver, Tee Higgins, 16.5%
- Running Back Devon Achane, 16.2%
- Wide Receiver JaMarr Chase, 16%
Roster Construction
When making your DFS roster, remember a few things and the most important sounds remedial but I will say it anyway, you are trying to win and in order to win you need to score the most points. In a large tournament that means you need to score more points than ten thousand or a hundred thousand other people.
How are you going to accomplish that?
- By utilizing positive correlation, which is the statistical relationship between how two or more of the players will perform.
Take for instance the Jacksonville at Cincinnati game, which currently has the highest predictive total on the slate (49.5). If you think this game is going to pop off (which I have my doubts), then you would look to roster the players that not only will have a hand in that but are (in tournaments) being overlooked by the masses.
- By stacking, those players that you believe will have a positive correlation: for instance Joe Burrow-TeeHiggins-JaMarr Chase will be a popular stack that is also costly, costing you 41.2% of your available salary.
- Which brings us to salary allotment, in DFS. In DraftKings you have $50,000 to spend on you nine slots: one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, a flex and a defense.
This week Josh Allen v Jets is the most expensive quarterback at $7100. Derrick Henry v Cleveland is the most expensive running back at $8200 while Chase v Jacksonville is the most expensive wide receiver coming at $8100. Tight end Trey McBride going against Carolina will cost you $6000 and the Ravens defense will cost you $3700.
Remember, especially in tournaments you are trying to roster the most unique, correlated lineup where each player will score 4.5 times their salary.
If your roster is positively correlated and you have stacked a pocket quarterback with two of his passing options and then because you believe the opponent can keep up have brought it back with a player or players from the opposing team you have a correlation.
Going back to last week’s milli maker winner, they utilized mini correlations for their lineup. They played Fields (traditional running quarterback) solo and played mini correlations for their other positions. Pairing running back Bijan Robinson with-wide receiver from opposing team Emeka Egbuka; they also mini paired Ricky Pearsall from the San Francisco at Seattle game with wide receiver (in the flex position) Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Make your roster tell a story.
Scoring
Which brings us back to scoring, remember DraftKings is a PPR system.
- Touchdowns are worth six points
- Passing yards are four points for every 100 yards
- Rushing yards are worth one point for every 10 yards
- Receptions are worth one point per reception and one point for every 10 yards
Bonus Points
- Three points for 300+ yard passing game
- Three points for 100+ yard rushing or receiving
- Two points for two point conversion
- One point for extra point
Negative Points
- -1 point for interception
- -1 point for fumble lost
Defensive Team
- +10 points if the opposing team does not score
- +7 points if the opposing team scores between 1-6 points
- +4 points if opposing team scores between 7-13 points
- No points if opposing team scores between 21-27 points
- -1 if opposing team scores between 28-34 points
- -4 if opposing team scores 35 or more points
- +1 point for sack
- +2 points for interception
- +2 points for fumble recovery
- +2 points blocked kick
- +2 points for safety
Have Fun
Have fun. Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose and remember the words of Rich Hribar from Sharp Football Analysis, “The most likely outcome is 1 of an infinite number of outcomes”.
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